Louisiana Tech at Troy: Week 10 preview

Louisiana Tech (6-2) visits Troy (4-4) on Sat, Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET. The line is Louisiana Tech −4.5 with a total of 47.5.
SP+ power ratings: Louisiana Tech -2.6 (84th), Troy -9.9 (108th). SP+ projects Louisiana Tech by 4.8, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Louisiana Tech offense ranks 62nd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.13); the Troy defense ranks 46th (+0.06 allowed). Biggest Louisiana Tech edges: passing success rate. The Troy defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, power success rate, rushing success rate.
The Troy offense ranks 116th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.00); the Louisiana Tech defense ranks 28th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Troy edges: rushing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry. The Louisiana Tech defense holds the edge in EPA per pass, passing success rate, EPA per play.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Louisiana Tech −2.2 (88th toughest), Troy −6.0 (112th toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 65°F at kickoff (feels like 59°), 0% chance of rain, wind N 8 mph gusting to 18.