Liberty at New Mexico State: Week 10 preview

Liberty (7-1) visits New Mexico State (3-5) on Sat, Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ET. The line is Liberty −16.5 with a total of 46.5.
SP+ power ratings: Liberty 7.5 (45th), New Mexico State -13.4 (119th). SP+ projects Liberty by 18.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Liberty offense ranks 8th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.30); the New Mexico State defense ranks 54th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Liberty edges: power success rate, second-level yards per carry, EPA per rush. The New Mexico State defense holds the edge in explosiveness.
The New Mexico State offense ranks 131st in FBS in EPA per play (−0.07); the Liberty defense ranks 9th (−0.06 allowed). The Liberty defense holds the edge in standard-downs success rate, EPA per play, passing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Liberty −10.1 (135th toughest), New Mexico State −4.9 (103rd toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 56°F at kickoff (feels like 51°), 5% chance of rain, wind E 8 mph gusting to 14.