Iowa State at Baylor: Week 10 preview

Iowa State (4-4) visits Baylor (5-3) on Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is Baylor −10 with a total of 50.5.
SP+ power ratings: Iowa State -1.2 (76th), Baylor 8.5 (43rd). SP+ projects Baylor by 12.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Iowa State offense ranks 64th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.12); the Baylor defense ranks 8th (−0.06 allowed). The Baylor defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, power success rate, stuff rate.
The Baylor offense ranks 79th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.09); the Iowa State defense ranks 121st (+0.22 allowed). Biggest Baylor edges: explosiveness, sack rate, passing explosiveness. The Iowa State defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Iowa State +8.2 (20th toughest), Baylor +2.5 (59th toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 68°F at kickoff (feels like 64°), 9% chance of rain, wind E 9 mph gusting to 10.