Hawai'i at UTEP: Week 10 preview

Hawai'i (2-6) visits UTEP (1-7) on Sat, Nov 7 · 9:30 PM ET. The line is Hawai'i −9.5 with a total of 49.5.
SP+ power ratings: Hawai'i -9.6 (107th), UTEP -24.5 (134th). SP+ projects Hawai'i by 12.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Hawai'i offense ranks 87th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the UTEP defense ranks 132nd (+0.29 allowed). Biggest Hawai'i edges: rushing success rate, standard-downs success rate, sack rate. The UTEP defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, explosiveness, rushing explosiveness.
The UTEP offense ranks 137th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.14); the Hawai'i defense ranks 104th (+0.18 allowed). Biggest UTEP edges: second-level yards per carry, rushing explosiveness, explosiveness. The Hawai'i defense holds the edge in power success rate, passing-downs success rate, rushing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Hawai'i −7.3 (125th toughest), UTEP +4.6 (44th toughest).
Weather watch: Cloudy, 57°F at kickoff (feels like 50°), 10% chance of rain, wind E 12 mph gusting to 28.