Duke at NC State: Week 10 preview

Duke (6-2) visits NC State (4-4) on Sat, Nov 7 · 12:30 PM ET. The line is Duke −4 with a total of 51.5.
SP+ power ratings: Duke 6.8 (47th), NC State -0.9 (74th). SP+ projects Duke by 5.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Duke offense ranks 26th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.21); the NC State defense ranks 114th (+0.20 allowed). Biggest Duke edges: sack rate, rushing explosiveness, explosiveness. The NC State defense holds the edge in rushing success rate.
The NC State offense ranks 53rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.15); the Duke defense ranks 27th (+0.01 allowed). Biggest NC State edges: passing success rate, power success rate, standard-downs success rate. The Duke defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry, explosiveness.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Duke −0.8 (78th toughest), NC State +0.7 (67th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 59°F at kickoff (feels like 52°), 0% chance of rain, wind N 12 mph gusting to 14.