Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: Week 9 preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) visit the Chicago Bears (5-2) on Sun, Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET. The line is Bears −6 with a total of 47.5.
The Buccaneers offense ranks 28th in EPA per play (−0.08); the Bears defense ranks 14th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Buccaneers edges: opportunity rate, line yards per carry, explosive run rate. The Bears defense holds the edge in sack rate, average 3rd-down distance, non-explosive EPA per play.
The Bears offense ranks 11th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Buccaneers defense ranks 3rd (−0.11 allowed). The Buccaneers defense holds the edge in non-explosive EPA per play, stuff rate, havoc rate.
Blitz watch: the Bears blitz on 41% of dropbacks (4th most), and the Buccaneers struggle against it (−0.18 EPA per dropback, 26th).
Blitz watch: the Buccaneers blitz on 41% of dropbacks (5th most), but the Bears are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.21 EPA per dropback, 6th).
Luck check: the Buccaneers have been a bit lucky (+0.9 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps, 3 fewer than a typical game.
Weather: Cloudy, 55°F at kickoff (feels like 50°), 12% chance of rain, wind E 7 mph gusting to 20.