Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots: Week 9 preview

The Green Bay Packers (4-3) visit the New England Patriots (4-3) on Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET. The line is Patriots −3 with a total of 47.5.
The Packers offense ranks 17th in EPA per play (−0.00); the Patriots defense ranks 18th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Packers edges: explosive pass rate, explosive play rate. The Patriots defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, non-explosive EPA per play, explosive run rate.
The Patriots offense ranks 10th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Packers defense ranks 12th (−0.03 allowed). Biggest Patriots edges: 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, passing success rate, non-explosive EPA per play. The Packers defense holds the edge in EPA per designed run, stuff rate, explosive play rate.
Luck check: the Packers have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 129 total snaps, close to a typical game.
Weather: Clear, 53°F at kickoff (feels like 47°), 6% chance of rain, wind W 4 mph gusting to 4.