Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins: Week 9 preview

The Detroit Lions (4-2) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-5) on Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET. The line is Lions −7 with a total of 48.5.
The Lions offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play (+0.14); the Dolphins defense ranks 29th (+0.13 allowed). Biggest Lions edges: EPA per dropback, non-explosive EPA per play, passing success rate. The Dolphins defense holds the edge in stuff rate.
The Dolphins offense ranks 26th in EPA per play (−0.05); the Lions defense ranks 32nd (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Dolphins edges: explosive run rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, explosive play rate. The Lions defense holds the edge in opportunity rate, line yards per carry, sack rate.
Luck check: the Lions have been lucky (+3.6 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Dolphins have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps, close to a typical game.
Weather: Clear, 84°F at kickoff (feels like 86°), 15% chance of rain, wind E 12 mph gusting to 12.