Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints: Week 9 preview

The Cleveland Browns (5-2) visit the New Orleans Saints (2-5) on Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET. The line is Saints −2.5 with a total of 43.5.
The Browns offense ranks 24th in EPA per play (−0.04); the Saints defense ranks 26th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Browns edges: explosive pass rate, rushing success rate, early-down EPA. The Saints defense holds the edge in sack rate, explosive run rate.
The Saints offense ranks 21st in EPA per play (−0.03); the Browns defense ranks 9th (−0.04 allowed). The Browns defense holds the edge in yards per dropback, havoc rate, opportunity rate.
Luck check: the Browns have been a bit unlucky (−0.9 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Saints have been unlucky (−2.4 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps, close to a typical game.
Weather: Indoors, so weather isn't a factor.