Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 8 preview

The Indianapolis Colts (2-5) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) on Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET. The line is Jaguars −10 with a total of 46.5.
The Colts offense ranks 27th in EPA per play (−0.06); the Jaguars defense ranks 15th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Colts edges: stuff rate, average 3rd-down distance. The Jaguars defense holds the edge in early-down EPA, EPA per dropback, EPA per play.
The Jaguars offense ranks 5th in EPA per play (+0.12); the Colts defense ranks 21st (+0.03 allowed). Biggest Jaguars edges: early-down EPA, yards per dropback, line yards per carry. The Colts defense holds the edge in average 3rd-down distance.
Luck check: the Colts have been a bit unlucky (−1.0 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Jaguars have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps, 3 fewer than a typical game.
Weather watch: Cloudy, 79°F at kickoff (feels like 77°), 34% chance of rain, wind E 15 mph gusting to 20.