Early Downs › Week 18

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Week 18 preview

• The Miami Dolphins (1-5) visit the New England Patriots (4-3) on Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET.
• The Dolphins offense ranks 26th in EPA per play (−0.05); the Patriots defense ranks 18th (+0.02 allowed). The Patriots defense holds the edge in sack rate, non-explosive EPA per play, rushing success rate.
• The Patriots offense ranks 10th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Dolphins defense ranks 29th (+0.13 allowed). Biggest Patriots edges: passing success rate, yards per dropback, average 3rd-down distance. The Dolphins defense holds the edge in EPA per designed run, explosive run rate.
• Luck check: the Dolphins have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 122 total snaps, 7 fewer than a typical game.