Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Week 18 preview

The Chicago Bears (5-2) visit the Minnesota Vikings (6-0) on Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Bears offense ranks 11th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Vikings defense ranks 1st (−0.22 allowed). Biggest Bears edges: explosive run rate. The Vikings defense holds the edge in sack rate, early-down EPA, yards per dropback.
The Vikings offense ranks 30th in EPA per play (−0.10); the Bears defense ranks 14th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Vikings edges: explosive play rate, explosive pass rate, opportunity rate. The Bears defense holds the edge in sack rate, non-explosive EPA per play, passing success rate.
Blitz watch: the Vikings blitz on 71% of dropbacks (1st most), but the Bears are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.21 EPA per dropback, 6th).
Blitz watch: the Bears blitz on 41% of dropbacks (4th most), and the Vikings struggle against it (−0.17 EPA per dropback, 25th).
Luck check: the Vikings have been lucky (+2.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 124 total snaps, 5 fewer than a typical game.
Weather: Indoors, so weather isn't a factor.