New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Week 17 preview

The New Orleans Saints (2-5) visit the Atlanta Falcons (3-4) on Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Saints offense ranks 21st in EPA per play (−0.03); the Falcons defense ranks 13th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Saints edges: 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, sack rate. The Falcons defense holds the edge in early-down EPA, explosive run rate, explosive play rate.
The Falcons offense ranks 22nd in EPA per play (−0.04); the Saints defense ranks 26th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Falcons edges: stuff rate, opportunity rate, rushing success rate. The Saints defense holds the edge in sack rate.
Luck check: the Saints have been unlucky (−2.4 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Falcons have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 132 total snaps, 3 more than a typical game.