Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: Week 17 preview

The Denver Broncos (5-2) visit the New England Patriots (4-3) on Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Broncos offense ranks 23rd in EPA per play (−0.04); the Patriots defense ranks 18th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Broncos edges: havoc rate, stuff rate, average 3rd-down distance. The Patriots defense holds the edge in 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, rushing success rate, passing success rate.
The Patriots offense ranks 10th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Broncos defense ranks 4th (−0.05 allowed). Biggest Patriots edges: average 3rd-down distance, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate. The Broncos defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, opportunity rate, havoc rate.
Blitz watch: the Patriots blitz on 39% of dropbacks (6th most), and the Broncos struggle against it (−0.19 EPA per dropback, 28th).
Luck check: the Broncos have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 129 total snaps, close to a typical game.