Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Week 17 preview

The Buffalo Bills (5-1) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-5) on Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Bills offense ranks 1st in EPA per play (+0.21); the Dolphins defense ranks 29th (+0.13 allowed). Biggest Bills edges: EPA per dropback, yards per dropback, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate.
The Dolphins offense ranks 26th in EPA per play (−0.05); the Bills defense ranks 31st (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Dolphins edges: 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, explosive pass rate. The Bills defense holds the edge in opportunity rate, stuff rate, line yards per carry.
Luck check: the Bills have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Dolphins have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 127 total snaps, close to a typical game.