Early Downs › Week 16

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings: Week 16 preview

• The Washington Commanders (1-4-1) visit the Minnesota Vikings (6-0) on Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET.
• The Commanders offense ranks 18th in EPA per play (−0.01); the Vikings defense ranks 1st (−0.22 allowed). The Vikings defense holds the edge in average 3rd-down distance, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, passing success rate.
• The Vikings offense ranks 30th in EPA per play (−0.10); the Commanders defense ranks 25th (+0.07 allowed). Biggest Vikings edges: stuff rate, havoc rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate. The Commanders defense holds the edge in early-down EPA.
• Blitz watch: the Commanders blitz on 46% of dropbacks (2nd most), and the Vikings struggle against it (−0.17 EPA per dropback, 25th).
• Luck check: the Commanders have been lucky (+1.5 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Vikings have been lucky (+2.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps, 3 fewer than a typical game.
• Weather: Indoors, so weather isn't a factor.