Early Downs › Week 16

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Week 16 preview

• The Green Bay Packers (4-3) visit the Chicago Bears (5-2) on Fri, Dec 25 · 1:00 PM ET.
• The Packers offense ranks 17th in EPA per play (−0.00); the Bears defense ranks 14th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Packers edges: explosive play rate, explosive pass rate, yards per dropback. The Bears defense holds the edge in non-explosive EPA per play, average 3rd-down distance, rushing success rate.
• The Bears offense ranks 11th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Packers defense ranks 12th (−0.03 allowed). Biggest Bears edges: 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, rushing success rate, opportunity rate. The Packers defense holds the edge in early-down EPA, yards per dropback, stuff rate.
• Luck check: the Packers have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps, close to a typical game.