Early Downs › Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: Week 15 preview

• The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) visit the Houston Texans (2-5) on Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET.
• The Jaguars offense ranks 5th in EPA per play (+0.12); the Texans defense ranks 24th (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Jaguars edges: explosive pass rate, explosive play rate, stuff rate. The Texans defense holds the edge in average 3rd-down distance, sack rate.
• The Texans offense ranks 13th in EPA per play (+0.03); the Jaguars defense ranks 15th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Texans edges: yards per dropback, explosive pass rate, havoc rate. The Jaguars defense holds the edge in opportunity rate, explosive run rate, rushing success rate.
• Luck check: the Jaguars have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Texans have been a bit lucky (+1.2 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 127 total snaps, close to a typical game.