Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills: Week 15 preview

The Chicago Bears (5-2) visit the Buffalo Bills (5-1) on Sat, Dec 19 · 8:20 PM ET.
The Bears offense ranks 11th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Bills defense ranks 31st (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Bears edges: explosive pass rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, passing success rate. The Bills defense holds the edge in explosive run rate.
The Bills offense ranks 1st in EPA per play (+0.21); the Bears defense ranks 14th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Bills edges: early-down EPA, yards per dropback, explosive play rate. The Bears defense holds the edge in sack rate, average 3rd-down distance.
Blitz watch: the Bears blitz on 41% of dropbacks (4th most), but the Bills are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.34 EPA per dropback, 3rd).
Luck check: the Bills have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 131 total snaps, close to a typical game.