Early Downs › Week 15

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders: Week 15 preview

• The Atlanta Falcons (3-4) visit the Washington Commanders (1-4-1) on Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET.
• The Falcons offense ranks 22nd in EPA per play (−0.04); the Commanders defense ranks 25th (+0.07 allowed). Biggest Falcons edges: rushing success rate, stuff rate, opportunity rate. The Commanders defense holds the edge in explosive run rate, early-down EPA.
• The Commanders offense ranks 18th in EPA per play (−0.01); the Falcons defense ranks 13th (−0.02 allowed). The Falcons defense holds the edge in explosive run rate, explosive play rate, average 3rd-down distance.
• Luck check: the Falcons have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Commanders have been lucky (+1.5 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 131 total snaps, close to a typical game.