Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens: Week 14 preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) visit the Baltimore Ravens (4-3) on Sun, Dec 13 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Buccaneers offense ranks 28th in EPA per play (−0.08); the Ravens defense ranks 19th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Buccaneers edges: EPA per designed run. The Ravens defense holds the edge in yards per dropback, explosive pass rate, early-down EPA.
The Ravens offense ranks 8th in EPA per play (+0.07); the Buccaneers defense ranks 3rd (−0.11 allowed). The Buccaneers defense holds the edge in stuff rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, explosive play rate.
Blitz watch: the Buccaneers blitz on 41% of dropbacks (5th most), but the Ravens are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.36 EPA per dropback, 2nd).
Luck check: the Buccaneers have been a bit lucky (+0.9 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Ravens have been a bit unlucky (−1.1 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps, 3 fewer than a typical game.