Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots: Week 14 preview

The Minnesota Vikings (6-0) visit the New England Patriots (4-3) on Thu, Dec 10 · 8:15 PM ET.
The Vikings offense ranks 30th in EPA per play (−0.10); the Patriots defense ranks 18th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Vikings edges: stuff rate, havoc rate, explosive pass rate. The Patriots defense holds the edge in sack rate, rushing success rate, non-explosive EPA per play.
The Patriots offense ranks 10th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Vikings defense ranks 1st (−0.22 allowed). Biggest Patriots edges: explosive run rate. The Vikings defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, EPA per designed run, line yards per carry.
Blitz watch: the Patriots blitz on 39% of dropbacks (6th most), and the Vikings struggle against it (−0.17 EPA per dropback, 25th).
Blitz watch: the Vikings blitz on 71% of dropbacks (1st most), but the Patriots are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.18 EPA per dropback, 8th).
Luck check: the Vikings have been lucky (+2.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 123 total snaps, 6 fewer than a typical game.