Houston Texans at Washington Commanders: Week 14 preview

The Houston Texans (2-5) visit the Washington Commanders (1-4-1) on Sun, Dec 13 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Texans offense ranks 13th in EPA per play (+0.03); the Commanders defense ranks 25th (+0.07 allowed). Biggest Texans edges: havoc rate, EPA per dropback, non-explosive EPA per play. The Commanders defense holds the edge in explosive run rate, opportunity rate, line yards per carry.
The Commanders offense ranks 18th in EPA per play (−0.01); the Texans defense ranks 24th (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Commanders edges: stuff rate, explosive pass rate, early-down EPA. The Texans defense holds the edge in explosive run rate, average 3rd-down distance, passing success rate.
Blitz watch: the Commanders blitz on 46% of dropbacks (2nd most), but the Texans are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.28 EPA per dropback, 5th).
Luck check: the Texans have been a bit lucky (+1.2 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Commanders have been lucky (+1.5 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps, close to a typical game.