Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins: Week 14 preview

The Chicago Bears (5-2) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-5) on Sun, Dec 13 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Bears offense ranks 11th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Dolphins defense ranks 29th (+0.13 allowed). Biggest Bears edges: 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, average 3rd-down distance, passing success rate.
The Dolphins offense ranks 26th in EPA per play (−0.05); the Bears defense ranks 14th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Dolphins edges: explosive play rate, yards per dropback, explosive pass rate. The Bears defense holds the edge in sack rate, non-explosive EPA per play, havoc rate.
Luck check: the Dolphins have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 123 total snaps, 6 fewer than a typical game.