Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers: Week 14 preview

The Buffalo Bills (5-1) visit the Green Bay Packers (4-3) on Sun, Dec 13 · 8:20 PM ET.
The Bills offense ranks 1st in EPA per play (+0.21); the Packers defense ranks 12th (−0.03 allowed). Biggest Bills edges: rushing success rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, non-explosive EPA per play.
The Packers offense ranks 17th in EPA per play (−0.00); the Bills defense ranks 31st (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Packers edges: explosive pass rate, sack rate, explosive play rate. The Bills defense holds the edge in opportunity rate, stuff rate, line yards per carry.
Luck check: the Bills have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Packers have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 134 total snaps, 5 more than a typical game.