Early Downs › Week 13

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: Week 13 preview

• The Miami Dolphins (1-5) visit the Denver Broncos (5-2) on Sun, Dec 6 · 4:05 PM ET.
• The Dolphins offense ranks 26th in EPA per play (−0.05); the Broncos defense ranks 4th (−0.05 allowed). Biggest Dolphins edges: explosive run rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, EPA per designed run. The Broncos defense holds the edge in opportunity rate, havoc rate, EPA per play.
• The Broncos offense ranks 23rd in EPA per play (−0.04); the Dolphins defense ranks 29th (+0.13 allowed). Biggest Broncos edges: havoc rate, sack rate, average 3rd-down distance.
• Luck check: the Dolphins have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Broncos have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 125 total snaps, 4 fewer than a typical game.