Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: Week 13 preview

The Buffalo Bills (5-1) visit the New England Patriots (4-3) on Sun, Dec 6 · 4:25 PM ET.
The Bills offense ranks 1st in EPA per play (+0.21); the Patriots defense ranks 18th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Bills edges: stuff rate, explosive pass rate, EPA per designed run.
The Patriots offense ranks 10th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Bills defense ranks 31st (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Patriots edges: passing success rate, EPA per dropback, yards per dropback. The Bills defense holds the edge in explosive run rate, opportunity rate, stuff rate.
Blitz watch: the Patriots blitz on 39% of dropbacks (6th most), but the Bills are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.34 EPA per dropback, 3rd).
Luck check: the Bills have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps, close to a typical game.