Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals: Week 12 preview

The Washington Commanders (1-4-1) visit the Arizona Cardinals (2-5) on Sun, Nov 29 · 4:25 PM ET.
The Commanders offense ranks 18th in EPA per play (−0.01); the Cardinals defense ranks 28th (+0.11 allowed). Biggest Commanders edges: explosive pass rate, EPA per dropback, early-down EPA. The Cardinals defense holds the edge in average 3rd-down distance, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, EPA per designed run.
The Cardinals offense ranks 19th in EPA per play (−0.02); the Commanders defense ranks 25th (+0.07 allowed). Biggest Cardinals edges: non-explosive EPA per play, rushing success rate, average 3rd-down distance. The Commanders defense holds the edge in explosive play rate, explosive run rate, explosive pass rate.
Blitz watch: the Commanders blitz on 46% of dropbacks (2nd most), and the Cardinals struggle against it (−0.25 EPA per dropback, 30th).
Luck check: the Commanders have been lucky (+1.5 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 131 total snaps, 2 more than a typical game.