Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: Week 11 preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) visit the Detroit Lions (4-2) on Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Buccaneers offense ranks 28th in EPA per play (−0.08); the Lions defense ranks 32nd (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Buccaneers edges: explosive run rate, EPA per designed run, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate. The Lions defense holds the edge in sack rate, yards per dropback, havoc rate.
The Lions offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play (+0.14); the Buccaneers defense ranks 3rd (−0.11 allowed). Biggest Lions edges: explosive run rate. The Buccaneers defense holds the edge in stuff rate, havoc rate, EPA per designed run.
Blitz watch: the Buccaneers blitz on 41% of dropbacks (5th most), but the Lions are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.38 EPA per dropback, 1st).
Luck check: the Buccaneers have been a bit lucky (+0.9 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Lions have been lucky (+3.6 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 133 total snaps, 4 more than a typical game.
Weather: Indoors, so weather isn't a factor.