Washington Commanders at New York Giants: Week 10 preview

The Washington Commanders (1-4-1) visit the New York Giants (4-2-1) on Thu, Nov 12 · 8:15 PM ET.
The Commanders offense ranks 18th in EPA per play (−0.01); the Giants defense ranks 16th (+0.01 allowed). Biggest Commanders edges: havoc rate, sack rate, early-down EPA. The Giants defense holds the edge in 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, passing success rate, average 3rd-down distance.
The Giants offense ranks 14th in EPA per play (+0.03); the Commanders defense ranks 25th (+0.07 allowed). Biggest Giants edges: 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, non-explosive EPA per play, EPA per play. The Commanders defense holds the edge in explosive run rate, explosive play rate, early-down EPA.
Blitz watch: the Commanders blitz on 46% of dropbacks (2nd most), and the Giants struggle against it (−0.18 EPA per dropback, 27th).
Luck check: the Commanders have been lucky (+1.5 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Giants have been a bit unlucky (−1.4 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps, close to a typical game.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 52°F at kickoff (feels like 47°), 13% chance of rain, wind E 7 mph gusting to 10.